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Ongoing economic monitoring | 2021 Business succession Business life cycle Family business

Abgeschlossenes Forschungsprojekt

Initial situation/problem

Due to the lack of official statistics, the IfM Bonn has been estimating the number of forthcoming business transfers in Germany in regular intervals since the mid-1990s. The estimation procedure, which has been used in its current form for ten years with only minor changes, is being put to the test.

Research objective/approach

The aim of the project is to estimate the number of forthcoming business transfers in the period 2022 to 2026. A particular challenge is the consideration of the Corona pandemic, which is likely to affect the number of business transfers within the estimation period. The main reason: the data sources on which the estimate is based (e.g., the Business Register) will at most cover the period up to 2019 at the time of the estimate and thus will not yet reflect the impact of the Corona pandemic. To absorb this, correction factors based on other data sources (e.g., commercial liquidation statistics) will be derived and applied.